Part of the ridiculous premise posed by the global warming theorists is that CO2 concentrations of double the long term average will result in a 3 degree rise in temperature with most of the new CO2 coming from fossil fuel consumption. I always wondered why “Big Oil” didn’t jump in and explain why that assuming continued acceleration of oil consumption was impossible, but they seem to have been pretty quiet. I think they have met with the climatologists, and I am thinking I know how it went:
Tex; OK boys, settle down, I am calling this meetin’ of Big Oil together. Now we all know each other, but we got’s us a special guest, a climatologist from the IPCC. Now Mr. Climatologist, my name’s Tex and I reckon you can guess from that where I’m from. These here are some of my trusted colleagues. Over there is Fayad, buddy of mine from the middle east, and Sergei next to him is Russian. Next to him is Joe, he’s from Canada, and Jose here is from Mexico.
Climatologist; Pleased to meet all of you
Boys; Howdy/Salaam/Da!/How’s it going, eh?/Si, senor.
Tex; Now let me get right to the point here. We been hearing all about this carbon tax thing of yours, and we got to admit, we’re concerned. We got a way of life, and we kinda got accustomed to it. Like just this morning me and Sergei and Jose went car shopping. We each picked out a brand new Lambourghini and before me or Sergei could even blink, Fayad here paid for all of them.
Fayad; it was only fair Tex, you got breakfast.
Joe; Hey! Nobody invited me!?
Tex; No offense Joe, but you stick out something awful in that stupid hat of yours.
Joe; You guys all got stupid hats too….
Fayad; Infidel! You dare to insult the head dress of 200 generations?
Sergei; An insult! Vile capitalist dog, hat is made of mink. Yours is like sock puppet.
Tex; OK, OK everyone settle down. They got a point Joe. I’m wearing an $800 dollar Stetson, you got a knitted toque. Mr Climatologist, ya see what I got to put up with? Now point is, if you could explain to us how makin’ an honest living is messing with the climate, maybe we can work something out. Now our understanding is that this here planet we live on is up against a 3 degree rise in temperature because of CO2 doubling. Have I got it right so far?
Climatologist; That’s the estimate, yes.
Tex; OK, so how much more can she take?
Tex; How much more can she take before she comes apart? 5 degrees? 10?
Joe; I could live with another 10 I think. I’d even dump the toque.
Climatologist; It doesn’t work like that, we don’t know for sure.
Jose; Don’t listen to gringo Joe. They so cold up there they think snow is normal. Look Mr Climatologist, I’m listening to you. But the first three degrees, wasn’t so bad, si? We can go maybe six?
Climatologist; Uhm… I’m thinking you’ve misunderstood. We’ve only gone up about a half a degree.
Sergei; No… I am reading report. Look here. It says CO2 double, tree degrees. Tree!
Climatologist; Yes, but that’s an estimate. CO2 hasn’t doubled yet, and we’ve only gone up a half a degree.
Sergei; Vatt? Right here in report…
Fayad; Infidel dog lied to whole world?
Tex; Whoa up everyone. Let’s not pull out the hangin’ rope just yet. Now Mr Climatologist, you can see we’re just a might confused. What you’re saying is that CO2 doubling and 3 degrees is just a prediction?
Climatologist; well… its a scientific prediction.
Tex; Well now then we got something to work with if it ain’t happened yet. So how much CO2 is we supposed to have on this planet anyway?
Climatologist; 280 parts per million.
Sergei; Vatt means million? Is that the one smaller than billion? I don’t tink vee use millions anymore in Russia oil field.
Tex; You got it Sergei, but this is climate not oil. Now if 280 is what we supposed to got, how much we got up to so far?
Climatologist; We’re at about 380 parts per million.
Tex; We didn’t even start drilling for oil in a big way before 1920 or so.
Fayad; I heard western world using “new math”, I thought it was infidel plot to short pay invoices. Climatologist, it will take another 180 years at current production rates to get to double.
Climatologist; Well true, but we’re basing our scientific prediction on continued acceleration of fossil fuel consumption.
Tex; OK, you got me jiggered there. What the sam heck is continued acceleration?
Climatologist; Well, if we look at oil consumption from 1920 to 1990, we see that it about doubled every 15 years or so. We just extrapolated from there. We’ll be at four times 1990 consumption by 2020, eight times by 2035. It won’t take 180 years, it will be less than 20.
Climatologist; What? What’s so funny?
<laughter, gasping for breath, more laughter>
Joe; Hate to break it to you buddy, but we can’t do it.
Jose; We want to….
Sergei; If vee could, vee vould. Trust me. Vit dat much money, vee buy you new planet.
Climatologist; Huh? What?
Tex; Pardner, I’m glad you explained, cuz I think we got your problem licked. You see, we ain’t got that much oil. If we put every cent we have into drilling from now on, and every hole we drill hits oil, we STILL couldn’t pump that much oil.
Climatologist; I don’t believe you.
Tex; Well I can see how you might not trust us, we got a bad reputation and Joe over there with his stupid toque-
Tex; Makes him look pretty shady. Let me explain. You see, in 1920 oil was pretty easy to find. Well we done pumped out most of the easy stuff by the 1970’s. The stuff’s been getting harder to find, and what we do find is more expensive to get out. Joe here is getting it out of tar if you can believe it. Now we’ve been keeping up with demand, but just barely. The only reason we can keep up is because the prices have gone up. When the prices go up, it curbs demand because folks can’t afford like they used to and they cut back consumption. I can let you talk to my accountant, he calls it a negative market feedback.
Climatologist; We don’t believe in negative feedbacks.
Tex; Well this ain’t climatology son, this is the real world of business, and in the real world, when you are running out of stuff and what you got left is a lot more expensive to pump, you get a negative feedback.
Climatologist; Well it doesn’t matter, the science is settled. We’re going forward with the carbon tax. We need to save the planet. We’re going to tax you and use the money to reduce demand.
Sergei; Vait vun second capitalist pig-
Climatologist; I’m a socialist actually
Fayad; Actually you are an infidel dog, a thief, a liar-
Tex; Easy Fayad, you’ll spontaneously combust if you get any angrier. Now let me get this straight. You’re going to tax us to prevent us from doing something that we can’t do in the first place?
Climatologist; Have you seen the graphs? If we don’t do something the temperature will shoot up like a hockey stick-
Joe; I’ll show you what a hockey stick is good for-
Jose; Let’s call a press conference. Let’s expose lying thieving gringo-
Climatologist; Go ahead.
Tex; Go ahead?
Climatologist; Who is the world going to believe? A bunch of greedy, filthy rich, selfish oil tycoons? Or a bunch of poor, hard working, UN climatologists trying to save the planet?
Sergei; Vun Qvestion. Vatts in it for you?
Climatologist; Finally. I thought you would never ask. Let me bring my colleague in. You may already know him. Before he became a climatologist trying to save the world, he was a humanitarian saving children in Iraq while Sadam was still in power. You remember how the “oil for food” thing worked don’t you? I thought you might….